Bluffing with a Helpless Hand

This is the classic bluff of movie lore. You’re up against an opponent or possibly two of them. You have a hopeless hand. Perhaps it’s a straight draw that didn’t materialize. Maybe it’s a busted flush draw.

If the hands were to be shown down, you know you couldn’t possibly win. So you bet. “Nothing ventured,” you think to yourself, “nothing gained.” If someone calls your bluff, you lose a bet you would have saved had you checked. But checking, of course, is tantamount to relinquishing your opportunity to win the pot. If you bet, there’s always the chance that both your opponents will fold. If someone doesn’t call you, then you win the entire pot. Suppose that pot contains $100 and the cost to bet is $10. Your bluff doesn’t have to succeed all of the time – or even most of the time – for it to be a good decision.

If bluffing fails nine times and succeeds only once, you will still be a winner in the long run. You’ll have lost an extra $10 nine times, or $90, but you will win $100 on one occasion, for a net win of $10. That net figure may not be a spectacular profit, perhaps, but enough to prove that bluffs have to succeed only every now and then to be worthwhile.